The war in Iran – America and Israel’s assault on the country and its barrage of missile and drone responses – have produced a variety of impacts. They might not be exactly what Donald Trump and his buddies had planned on, but clear winners and losers have emerged.
Winners
Iran. Though the missile impact on the country has been devastating to its military infrastructure, it is a large country and much of the essentials are intact. The Revolutionary Guard remains strong, including the dreaded Basij militia, which savagely counters any attempts at resistance to the regime. More important for the leadership, the political infrastructure is solid, despite the assassination of many of the top political and military leaders. They were quickly replaced. A new Ayatollah has been declared, the son of the previous one, who is reported to be even more of a hard-liner than his father. The popularity and support for the regime has sky-rocketed, for nothing unites a country like a foreign attack. Even many of those who despised the Ayatollah and the Islamic regime support the efforts to stave off American assaults and Trump’s demands for political control of the country. The regime has never been stronger. There is no hope of a deal to limit nuclear arms in Iran, and in fact the country has even more reason to increase the speed of developing fissionable grade Uranium and nuclear devices, now that it no longer trusts the US and is determined to develop the strongest defenses it can produce.
Israel. It is likely that Prime Minister Bebe Netanyahu goaded Trump into these Iran attacks, and for good reason. He desperately wanted to have something to deflect the Israeli public’s attention from his continuing legal troubles, and to demonstrate his strength, especially following the catastrophic Hamas attacks and his unsuccessful attempts to rid Gaza of every trance of Hamas by obliterating much of the territory. Hamas is still a potent force in the territory. After assassinating leaders of Hamas and Hizbollah, the head of the Ayatollah remained his main prize. Trump helped him accomplish that. And despite the Iranian missile and drone attacks that have landed on Israel’s soil, Netanyahu’s popularity has soared. It’s said that over ninety percent of Jewish Israelis are behind his war efforts.
Russia. It is alleged that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has been supplying Iran with missiles, though Putin has denied it. He would have good reason to do so, however. The longer the US pounds away at Iran, the more that the world’s attention has turned away from what Russia is trying to do in Ukraine. Russia’s economy is almost solely dependent on the international sales of its oil reserves, and with the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz that limits access to Iranian and Gulf States’ oil. As a result, the price of Russian petroleum has risen significantly and their economy is thriving.
Trump personally. The Iran war has masterfully taken all the oxygen out of news media. No one is talking about the Epstein files these days, even though the bombshell information about a 13-year old girl alleging to the FBI that she had been raped by him was revealed just at the time that Trump launched the attacks on the Ayatollah. Though the American public in general is opposed to this Iranian adventure, the Republican base is solidly behind it. For Trump, this is what counts. Moreover, his family is profiting from the war. His sons Donald and Eric have invested heavily in companies that make military drones and drone components, and are reaping the benefits.
Losers
Lebanon and the Gulf States. In retaliating against the attacks on their country, Iran has targeted not only Israel but also sites where the US military has bases. Iran has attacked locations in UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrein. Inevitably there has been collateral damage to civilian areas near those military sites, as the countries scramble to defend themselves. In Lebanon, Iran’s ally Hizbollah has sent missiles into Israel, with huge counter strikes against Hizbollah in Beirut and Southern Lebanon. The Lebanese government has attempted to distance itself from the Hizbollah- Israel conflict, though many areas of the capital and elsewhere in the country have been destroyed.
Europe. Leaders of European nations have been conflicted about how to respond to the US attempts to get their support for the war. The Iranian attack is hugely unpopular among the European public, and France’s President Emmanuel Macron has denounced the US attacks. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer initially withheld the US of British military bases for the Iranian war efforts, but then relented. European countries are trying to find a way to avoid Trump’s wrath but appease their own anti-war public.
Ukraine. To Russia’s delight, the attention of the American public has shifted away from Russia’s assault on Ukraine. More important, with the constant bombardment on Iran, the US stockpile of missiles has gotten perilously low, and Ukrainian leaders are worried that Trump has depleted the supply that is necessary for Ukraine to continue its defense.
United States. An economy already battered by the erstwhile tariffs has gotten worse. Gas prices have soared since the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz that prohibits access to Iranian and Gulf States oil reserves. There is such a backload of oil produced that many of the storage tanks in the region are full. As a result production facilities will have to close down. That means that even when the fighting stops it will take considerable time to get the production facilities working again. The price of oil worldwide, including the United States, will continue to be at all-time high levels. The Iran war is the most expensive in history, costing taxpayers almost 2 billion dollars a day. The US has also suffered in international stature from what appears to much of the rest of the world to be a capricious military act with no clear purpose. The countries that used to consider themselves as allies with the US feel increasingly insecure. Their trend towards self-sufficiency has increased. The US is no longer the stable and reasonable ally of the past.